# Trading journal statistics explained: win rate, expectancy, profit factor and drawdown - Published: 2026-10-26 - Author: JouView - Canonical: https://blog.jouview.com/posts/trading-journal-statistics-explained/ - Product: https://jouview.com/ Five numbers most trading journals show, what each one measures, how to work it out by hand, and why a small sample can make any of them mislead you. A trading journal turns a pile of trades into a few numbers. Each number answers a different question, and each can mislead you if you read it alone. Below are the five that matter most, worked through on one sample of ten trades. Example data The ten trades below are made up to show the arithmetic. They are not anyone's real results. | Trade | Result (R) | Counts as | |---|---|---| | 1 | +2.0 | Win | | 2 | −1.0 | Loss | | 3 | +1.5 | Win | | 4 | −1.0 | Loss | | 5 | −1.0 | Loss | | 6 | +3.0 | Win | | 7 | +0.05 | Break-even (within ±0.1R) | | 8 | −1.0 | Loss | | 9 | +1.0 | Win | | 10 | −0.5 | Loss | ## Start with R Before any statistic, record what each trade risked: the distance from entry to stop, times the size, in money. Call that 1R. A trade that made twice what it risked is +2R; a full stop-out is −1R. Measuring in R lets you compare trades of different sizes and markets. It also exposes two habits that money figures hide: stops moved further away, which makes a loss bigger than 1R, and trades taken without a stop, which have no R at all. ## Win rate Win rate = winning trades ÷ trades that were wins or losses In the sample: 4 wins out of 9 decided trades is 44% . Trade 7 made a twentieth of its risk; most journals, JouView included, count a result that small as break-even and leave it out. Count it as a trade and the win rate drops to 40%. Neither is wrong. Pick one rule and keep it. Win rate alone says nothing about money. A 70% win rate loses if the losers are three times the size of the winners. ## Average win and average loss Average R:R = average winning trade ÷ average losing trade In the sample the average win is 1.875R and the average loss is 0.9R, so average R:R is 2.08 . Win rate and R:R only make sense together. The win rate you need just to break even is: Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + average R:R) With an R:R of 2.08 you break even at about 32% winners. The sample's 44% is comfortably above that, which is why it made money. ## Expectancy Expectancy = total result ÷ number of trades The sample made +3.05R over 10 trades, so expectancy is +0.31R per trade . With 1R = $100, that's $30.50 a trade on average. Expectancy combines win rate and R:R in one number. When every trade counts as a win or a loss, it equals (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). It's the closest thing a journal has to "does this make money", but only for the trades you logged, in the conditions you traded them. ## Profit factor Profit factor = total of winning trades ÷ total of losing trades The sample: 7.5R won against 4.5R lost gives 1.67 . Above 1, the winners paid for the losers before costs. Below 1, they didn't. JouView marks 1.5 and above as a pass; treat any threshold as a rule of thumb, not a target. ## Max drawdown Add the results up in order and track the running total. Max drawdown is the biggest fall from a high in that running total to a later low. In the sample the total reaches +2.5R after trade 3, then falls to +0.5R after trade 5: a max drawdown of −2.0R , or −$200 with 1R = $100. Drawdown tells you what the strategy feels like to trade, and whether your account and your nerve can survive its bad patches at your size. Some journals, JouView among them, also count how far each trade went against you while it was open. That makes drawdown larger and more honest than a figure built from closed results alone. ## How many trades before you trust it? There is no magic number, but ten trades is far too few. In the sample, removing trade 6 alone cuts expectancy from +0.31R to +0.006R. One outlier was holding the result up. - Watch how the figures change as trades are added. A number that still swings with every new trade isn't settled yet. - Compare setups only when each one has enough trades of its own. A setup with six trades can top any ranking by luck. - Split by period, such as month or market condition, and check that the edge shows up in more than one of them. ## Mistakes that distort the numbers - Skipping trades. Logging the good days and forgetting the bad ones flatters every figure. Log every trade, including the ones you're not proud of. - Moving stops. A stop moved away turns a 1R loss into a 2R loss, and the average loss quietly grows. - Leaving out costs. Commissions, fees and spreads come off every trade. If your journal doesn't include them, subtract them yourself before trusting a thin edge. - Mixing paper and live trades. Keep a column that says which is which, and review them separately. - Deleting "mistakes". Bad trades are part of how you actually trade. Tag them instead of removing them. ## In JouView JouView's Statistics view works these figures out from the closed trades in your journal. A result within a tenth of the trade's risk counts as break-even. Drawdown includes how far each trade went against you while it was open. Commissions and fees aren't recorded, so they aren't included. The statistics reference (https://jouview.com/statistics/) gives the exact rule behind every figure, with a worked example. ## FAQ ### What is a good win rate? It depends on your average R:R. With an average R:R of 1, you need more than 50% winners to make money; with an R:R of 2, more than about 33%. The break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + average R:R). ### What is a good profit factor? Above 1 means the winners paid for the losers, before costs. Many journals, JouView included, treat 1.5 or more as a pass, but the figure only means something over enough trades. ### Should I measure expectancy in money or in R? Both are useful. Money shows what you earned. R lets you compare trades of different sizes and markets, and shows whether your risk per trade stayed consistent. ### Should break-even trades count in my win rate? Choose a rule and keep it. Many traders leave out trades that ended within a small fraction of their risk; JouView uses a tenth of the risk. What matters most is applying the same rule every time.